Gotta lose to improve?

Michael Lombardi said on Bill Simmons’ “BS Report” today that losing the the Ravens was good for the Patriots.

“I think the Pats are clearly in a transitional state and I think it was the best thing. If you are a Patriots fan, you should be absolutely delighted that the Patriots lost the game… Had they won the game, you and I both know, and all Patriot Nation knows, they weren’t going to win the Super Bowl”

Still worth a shot right? Apparently not.

“If we go to the uncapped year in the NFL… the final eight teams wouldn’t be allowed to sign free agents. They could only replace free agents they lost. So it really would have hindered the Patriots offseason, in terms of adding a Julius Peppers, or any other great player out there… By losing the game, it keeps them out of the final eight and puts them in position to use all the cap room they have, all the resources they have, and actually spend some money and rebuild the team. I think it was the greatest thing that ever happened to the Patriots.”

Well I’m not sure about the last statement, but I’m feeling optimistic so I’m gonna go with it for a second here. It does give the team a better chance to build through free agency. Combined with the lack of a cap (which I would use to cut players without the cap hit) it could be a good time for the team to turnover the roster a bit. I can’t see the Pats giving huge money to a Peppers but maybe they give him a big first year in the contract and sort out a reasonable contract long-term. Either way, the free agency limitations for the top 8 teams have been avoided. I’m goin’ with Lombardi! The Pats clearly threw the game, did you see the non-tackling on Rice’s first run? Meriweather new the plan. I’m convinced.

On reflection… Ravens 33-14 Patriots

Well, I did say Ray Rice needed to be stopped. The Patriots couldn’t even stop him on one play. 17 seconds in, the Pats were looking at a 7 point deficit following Rice’s 83 yard run, the first play from scrimmage in the game. Within 4 and a half minutes it was 14-0 as the Ravens marched in following a strip-sack of Brady at the NE 17. By the end of the first quarter the Ravens were up by 24 and the Patriots front office were starting the draft preparation. Boos rained down on the Patriots players as the turnovers kept flowing. In truth, the final score flattered the Patriots.

Inept is the word that springs to mind. I don’t even want to talk about it anymore. I’m with the boo-boys personally.

Key Stats

• Ray Rice ran for 159 yards and 2 TDs, with most of that coming on the 83 yard TD run on the first play
• Tom Brady finished with 23/42, 154 yards, 2 TDs and 3 INTs
• Julian Edelman had a good game, with 6 catches for 44 yards and 2TDs (Wes Welker II?)
• 17 of the Ravens’ first half points came from Tom Brady turnovers (2 of his 3 INTs on the day and the fumble)
• Joe Flacco only needed to throw 10 times (completing 4 for 34 yards and having 1 INT) as the Ravens ran for 234 yards
• The loss was the Patriots’ first home playoff loss since the 1978 divisional game vs the Oilers

What next for the Patriots?

I think this off-season is very important for the Patriots. The window of opportunity for this team to win another Superbowl lasts for maybe 3-4 more years until Brady’s play starts deteriorating/he retires/he is traded by Belichick (wouldn’t surprise me given Belichick’s policy of getting rid too soon rather than too late). The other pieces of the puzzle need to be put in place quickly before the window slams shut.

Over the coming months as free agency and the draft comes along I’ll discuss it further, but…

1. Pass rush is key. The secondary isn’t amazing but it’s solid enough but the lack of a rush means they have to cover for far too long.
2. Brady needs more receiving weapons. Moss is coming to the end (something I also want to discuss soon), Welker will probably start next season on PUP, Aiken is a special teamer and at TE Benjamin Watson could be on his way out.
3. The O-line needs strengthening. Moss would be far more effective given more time to get open, that lack of time has contributed to Welker getting 123 catches because his routes get him open quicker.
4. The D-line needs strengthening. The loss of Seymour might have been a good long-term move, but it hurt the Patriots this year. 234 yards rushing on Sunday was evidence of that.
5. Leadership. This one is hard to solve. Free agents will likely be thin on the ground, you can’t draft experience, and nobody seems willing to step up. Mayo and Wilfork are quiet leaders, but there’s no Tedy Bruschi, no Rodney Harrison. In the Ravens game Kevin Faulk huddled the offense up and gave them a very passionate speech, and he also did some talking on the field, but he’s the last of a dying breed on this team, and the defense has nobody.
6. This is another one that needs time to be talked about on its own, but I think the coaching needs looking at. Offensive and defensive play-calling have been questionable at best. Benjamin Watson came out after the game and said O’Brien was de-facto offensive coordinator, and you have to think he’s not doing a great job. Draw plays on 3rd and 20, no establishing the run, no variety, not a single play that’s tricked the opposition.

Patriots’ Playoff Outlook – Wild Card Round vs Ravens

With the NFL Playoffs now underway in Cincinnati, what better time to look at the Patriots’ chances of winning it all?

Unfortunately, whilst anything can happen in the next month, things don’t look so great for the Pats. In the final regular season game in Houston, Wes Welker was injured making a simple cut he’s made hundreds of times to try and shake off defenders. Welker led the NFL in the regular season with 123 catches despite missing time at the beginning of the season and the rest of the Texans game. He’s a key part of the Patriots offense. Whilst it’s clear that the slot receiver position in this offense leads to a lot of catches (Julian Edelman stepped into Welker’s role and had 10 catches for 103 yards) Welker is a special player and excels in that role. Edelman on the other hand is a serviceable replacement, but not much more despite having a similar skill set to Welker.

Looking ahead to the Ravens game tomorrow, the Patriots offense has to find a way to work around the loss of Welker (avoiding Ed Reed’s hands on the way) and score some points because players like Ray Rice can make a play for the Ravens at any time. Rice is fast, hard to tackle and a duel threat running or receiving, which brings me on to the Patriots defense. As well as Rice, Willis McGahee is in good form. 167 yards and 3 TDs was what the Raiders defense held him to last week (although I’m sure Hiram Eugene could have done a lot more to stop McGahee’s 77 yard run to the endzone). If the Ravens can run on the Patriots like they have against teams like Oakland, it will be a tough one for the Patriots but I think they can win this game.

My Prediction: Ravens 24 – 31 Patriots