Firstly, I’ll apologise for the length of time since I last posted. I’ve been snowed under with work at university and there’s also not been much going on in the NFL/Patriots world besides Vince Wilfork’s unresolved situation and the 2010 NFL Combine.
So what’s coming up for the Flying Elvis Blog? I’ve agreed to do some analysis of draft prospects for the forums on PFW In Progress.com and I’ll also be posting my views here. As part of that, I’m currently working on some statistical analysis of the Combine drills with particular emphasis on certain players that could be targets for the Pats. In order to do this, I’ll be using the theories outlined by Joe Landers of Ourlads in this paper.
The methods could be a little complicated to explain in full, but it basically works using both the number of drills in which a prospect exceeded the average for his position (Exceeded Peer Average, EPA) and the correlation between success at a certain drill and success in the NFL (Attribute Success Correlation, ASC). Landers looked at players at the Combine from 2005 to 2008 and where they were on their respective NFL rosters (if they were in the NFL at all) in 2008. I’ll be using his theories to predict the success of prospects in this year’s draft.
I’ll start posting the results this week, as soon as all the drills are finished and I can start doing the maths. If you have any particular players you want my predictions for just post a comment or drop me an email.